Before the voting on March 15-17, 2024, there were many discussions about whether we would be able to find out how many people actually voted for peace. Fortunately, in the Vasileostrovsky district of St. Petersburg, we have such an opportunity!
Now I will show and tell you how.
Now I will show and tell you how.
So, I have shown what results I have restored. But how?
HONEST COUNTS 2019 AND TURNOUT COMPARISON
In September 2019, independent municipal deputies were elected in each of the five municipalities of the Vasileostrovsky district. The electoral campaign in the district was relatively clean — at least, without significant falsifications on the voting day and during the vote count. And this gives us a convenient starting point.
And let's look primarily at the turnout. With some exceptions for anomalous areas, the turnout falls within a 10% interval. We will consider this normal electoral behavior - residents of neighboring electoral districts will show approximately equal interest in voting.
And let's look primarily at the turnout. With some exceptions for anomalous areas, the turnout falls within a 10% interval. We will consider this normal electoral behavior - residents of neighboring electoral districts will show approximately equal interest in voting.
Now let's look at the variation in turnout in the official voting results on March 15-17, 2024. There is nothing natural there, of course the variation across polling stations (even if we exclude the extremely anomalous 42% and 95%) is within 40%. Can the electoral behavior of residents of neighboring areas, very similar in terms of construction and population composition, differ by almost 2 times?
I believe, and the results of 2019 confirm my hypothesis, that it cannot.
I believe, and the results of 2019 confirm my hypothesis, that it cannot.
This allows us to assume that the actual turnout in the voting in the Vasileostrovsky district for most polling stations lies somewhere in the range of 50-60%. Turnout above 60% will be considered anomalous.
What's next?
What's next?
WITHOUT TRANSFERRING VOTES
Here I must thank the election commissions of the Vasileostrovsky district. Some of them did not manipulate the results at all (which is an achievement in today's times). And those that did manipulate did not touch the votes for Davankov, Kharitonov, Slutsky, or invalid ballots — they only added votes to candidate Putin.
Here's why I think so:
Here's why I think so:
Above, I presented pairs of neighboring polling stations. In one of the pairs of stations, the turnout falls within our "normal" corridor. On the second station in the pair, the turnout is anomalous.
We see something important: regardless of the official turnout, the number of votes for Davankov or invalid ballots turns out to be very close for neighboring stations. Furthermore, there are absolutely no stations with radically lower results (we are always talking about hundreds, not units of votes).
We see something important: regardless of the official turnout, the number of votes for Davankov or invalid ballots turns out to be very close for neighboring stations. Furthermore, there are absolutely no stations with radically lower results (we are always talking about hundreds, not units of votes).
HOW TO RECOUNT
1. We do not touch stations with a turnout of 60% and below - this is our control group.
2. We cut off and subtract all turnout above 60% on stations where it exists from the votes for candidate Putin.
3. We recount the accumulated percentages.
And here's what we get:
2. We cut off and subtract all turnout above 60% on stations where it exists from the votes for candidate Putin.
3. We recount the accumulated percentages.
And here's what we get:
In total: one way or another, about 23% of voters who participated in the voting on March 15-17 in the Vasileostrovsky district of St. Petersburg gave their votes for peace - whether by voting for Davankov or against everyone (invalid ballot).
And here is a map for those who, like me, love maps:
And here is a map for those who, like me, love maps:
SUPPORT ME
Hello! My name is Leonid Andrukhov.
I am the lead designer of Boris Nadezhin's campaign, a municipal deputy of "Ostrov Dekabristov" in St. Petersburg, former art director of the GOOD WOOD construction campaign, and former head of "City Projects" in St. Petersburg.
If you want to support me, here are two links for that:
I am the lead designer of Boris Nadezhin's campaign, a municipal deputy of "Ostrov Dekabristov" in St. Petersburg, former art director of the GOOD WOOD construction campaign, and former head of "City Projects" in St. Petersburg.
If you want to support me, here are two links for that: